Testing Fractional Persistence and Nonlinearity in Infant Mortality Rates of Asia Countries
Oluleye H. Babatunde *
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, The University of Virginia’s College at Wise, Virginia, USA.
OlaOluwa S Yaya
Department of Statistics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria.
Oluwasegun B Adekoya
Department of Economics, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Ogun State, Nigeria.
Oluwagbenga T Babatunde
Department of Statistics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The infant mortality rates in 45 Asian countries (1960-2018), obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, are investigated using I(d) framework, which allows for simultaneous estimation of the degree of persistence and nonlinearities in infant mortality rates as well as their growth rates. A high degree of persistence in the decreases of mortality rate is found with nonlinear evidence in most of the cases, confirming nonlinear dynamics of mortality rates. In the growth of mortality rates, we find ten countries (Armenia, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Kuwait, Myanmar, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and UAE) with evidence of mean reversion. Health management in those listed countries needs to kick start interventions that improve the survival rates of infants.
Keywords: Infant mortality rate, death rate, fractional persistence, nonlinearity, Asia